Estimate of CTE in deceased NFL players rises to 75%
New research using national death records suggests a higher prevalence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy than previous brain bank studies indicated, influencing youth football decisions.
By Andrew Bennett ·
Parents across the United States are increasingly steering their children toward flag football after a new study estimated that three out of four deceased National Football League players between 2008 and 2023 likely had chronic traumatic encephalopathy. The finding marks the highest estimate of CTE prevalence to date and follows an April study that found at least one in four former NFL players who died between 2016 and 2021 had the degenerative brain disease.
The research team, based at Boston University, expanded its methodology beyond donated brains to include national death records for 1,966 other deceased former players. They analyzed 396 donated brains alongside the broader mortality data to reach their conclusion. This approach aims to account for the fact that families of players with cognitive decline are more likely to request autopsies, which can skew findings from brain banks alone.
Sandeep Basran, an assistant coach for a Chicago flag team, said the CTE risk drives his family's choice to avoid tackle football for his 9-year-old son. Basran noted that repetitive minor hits, not just major impacts, contribute to brain changes over time. He also cited the risk of injury affecting his son's ability to play other sports such as basketball, tennis, and golf.
Data from the Aspen Institute's State of Play report shows flag football has become the most commonly played form of the game for children ages 6 to 12, surpassing tackle in 2017. Between 2019 and 2024, flag participation rose by 14 percent among kids ages 6 to 17, while tackle declined by 7 percent. In the 13 to 17 age group, however, tackle remains more popular, with 6.4 percent participation compared to 2.8 percent for flag.
Flag football is also expanding in girls' sports. Tim Lewis, a coach in San Diego, observed rapid growth in girls' teams, citing a recent event at Torrey Pines High School where local players were honored during a high school game. Joe Becker, owner of i9 Sports in Chicago, said the sport's designation as an official Illinois high school sport for girls and its upcoming Olympic debut will further drive enrollment.
The NFL has stated it continues to implement strategies to reduce concussions and head impacts. Meanwhile, flag football will debut as an official Olympic sport at the 2028 Los Angeles Games. Rashad Crawford, a mentor for youth players in Chicago, predicted that the visibility from the Olympics and existing travel leagues could lead to discussions about a professional flag football league within the next four to six years.
