College Football Playoff Odds: UTSA's slim shot faces Florida Atlantic
The Roadrunners hold a 0.7% chance of reaching the postseason after missing the initial Top 25 rankings, while the Owls boast the nation's most prolific passing attack.
By Rosa Wojcik ·
The SportsLine Projection Model assigns UTSA a 0.7% probability of making the College Football Playoff, a figure that places the team 40th in the nation. This low assessment follows the release of the first official playoff rankings on Tuesday, which left the Roadrunners out of the Top 25 entirely. Only one Group of Five school, Boise State, secured a spot at No. 25.
Boise State leads the group of non-power conference teams with a 77.7% chance of reaching the postseason, a figure higher than Ohio State's 69.6%. The Broncos are listed at +100 to make the playoff and -122 to finish as the No. 1 seed. If Boise State falters, the path opens for other teams, but the odds remain steep for everyone else in the Group of Six.
UTSA enters Thursday's game with a 7-1 record, including a 4-0 mark in American Conference play. The team is 7-1 for the first time since 2021. Coach Jeff Traylor has led the program to a bowl game for the seventh consecutive season. The Roadrunners are +600 to make the playoff, with the No. 1 seed at -950.
Offensively, UTSA ranks fourth in the American Conference, averaging 33.5 points per game. Senior quarterback Owen McCown has started 35 consecutive games. He has thrown for 1,751 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions this season. His son, Josh McCown, serves as the quarterbacks coach for the Minnesota Vikings. Running back Will Henderson III has carried the ball 109 times for 664 yards and five scores.
Florida Atlantic presents a different profile. The Owls average 37.8 points per game, outpacing UTSA in scoring output. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has completed 227 of 316 passes for 2,536 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has been intercepted five times. The Owls are 4-0 at home this season, though they are 3-1 against the spread in those games.
Wide receiver Easton Messer leads the nation with 74 receptions for 898 yards and nine touchdowns. He also returned two punts for scores. On Oct. 24, against Rice, Messer recorded a receiving touchdown, a rushing touchdown, and a punt return touchdown in the same contest. He is the only player in the 21st century to achieve that statistical feat in a single game.
The defense remains a point of concern for Florida Atlantic. The unit allows 468.9 yards and 35.8 points per contest. In four home games this season, two opponents combined for 20 points in losses, while the other two combined for 79 points in defeats. This volatility contributes to the betting market's high expectation for points.
The game is the sixth meeting between the schools. Florida Atlantic leads the series 3-2 and is 2-1 against UTSA in Boca Raton. However, UTSA has won the last two matchups, including a victory on its final trip to Florida in 2023. The teams have not played in Texas since 2024.
Betting lines list UTSA at -6.5 via DraftKings. The total points line is set at 72.5, which is among the highest nationally for the season. Eighty-six percent of the money is on the Over, though only 60% of the tickets are. The model projects a total of 63 points for the contest.
