Hispanic voters shift to Democrats in Texas
A sharp reversal in the midterms sees roughly 70% of Hispanic Texans backing Democratic candidates, a stark contrast to the 2024 presidential race.
By Rosa Wojcik ·
Ordinary voters in Texas and across the Southwest cast ballots for Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, marking a decisive break from the 2024 presidential results. The shift was most visible in Texas, where every county voted more Democrat than it did two years ago. The margin of this swing widened as the Hispanic population share in a county increased.
In the Texas Senate race, approximately 70% of Hispanic voters supported Democrat James Talarico, while only about 30% backed Republican Ken Paxton. In the 2024 presidential election, the group was nearly evenly split. Among Hispanic Texans under 65, the shift toward Talarico amounted to a 20 percentage point gain.
Representative Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico described the outcome as a demonstration of strength after winning his district by 17 percentage points. He previously won by less than one point in 2022. Johnny Garcia, a police officer who won a new congressional district in the San Antonio area, noted that his victory occurred in a district where Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2024. Garcia stated that the team focused on the issues most important to residents.
Democrats took control of the U.S. House and Senate, capitalizing on voter frustration regarding rising prices and government corruption. In Texas, Democrats secured the governorship, a Senate seat, and all state offices. Cindy Candia, a 56-year-old Democrat in the Rio Grande Valley, expressed enthusiasm for incoming Governor Gina Hinojosa. Candia noted that Hinojosa is a woman from Brownsville, a candidate type she did not expect to win in Texas.
The party also won every House district touching the Mexican border, a first since 2008. In Florida, fewer than half of Hispanic voters supported incumbent Senator Ashley Moody, despite Trump winning 55% of Hispanic support in 2024. In Kansas, three Hispanic-majority counties that heavily favored Trump in 2024 shifted to support Adam Hamilton, the first Democrat to win the state’s Senate seat in nearly a century. Voter participation in those counties rose by 27% compared to 2022.
Fourteen Hispanic Democrats won office for the first time, including 10 in districts held by Republicans or drawn to favor the GOP. Linda Sánchez, president of the CHC BOLD PAC, said the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will have its largest membership ever. Leticia Gutierrez, a Democrat who won a redistricted Houston-area seat, said voters want representation that understands their problems. Manny Rutinel, who defeated Representative Gabe Evans in Colorado, said voters chose him based on his personal economic history.
In districts where at least 25% of the eligible citizen population is Hispanic, Democratic candidates outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 results by an average of 11 percentage points. In Hispanic-majority counties, Senate candidates exceeded their party’s 2024 performance by more than 15 percentage points. Elton Reid, a 44-year-old voter in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said Trump’s immigration enforcement actions felt like a betrayal. Matt Tuerk, the Democratic mayor of Allentown, warned that Hispanic voters are giving Democrats a chance but are on probation.
