Israel Democracy Institute: 640,000 First-Time Voters Could Decide 12 Knesset Seats
Young Israelis make up nearly 10% of the electorate and are expected to influence the outcome of the Oct. 27 general election.
By Andrew Bennett ·
Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, for a general election where the voting choices of young adults may determine the fate of up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Because their numbers are large enough to swing close races, their collective decision could alter the balance of power in Jerusalem.
The weight of this demographic became apparent in May, when the IDI surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters. The data showed that between 80% and 95% across all population groups said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth expressed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated they intended to vote. For context, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election was 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain to vote, with another 19% thinking they would.
Tammy Hoffman, who heads the education policy program at the IDI, noted that Israel is a young country with a high birth rate. She stated that if turnout remains high, as their research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference. The IDI co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center in a Tel Aviv auditorium. More than 1,000 first-time voters, many in pre-military programs, attended to hear from leading politicians.
Political leanings among this group are mixed. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right. Meanwhile, 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% said they would vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, while 14% favored Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections at high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with some support for Likud but little for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.
National security and the cost of living ranked as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab young voters in the surveys. Hoffman explained that these issues are prominent because this generation was in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. She said, "They are worried about their future."
Individual voters reflect this range of priorities. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He supports Smotrich's West Bank policies despite disagreeing with his Gaza approach, saying, "We need a strong, secure Israel." His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, will vote for the opposition change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.
Other young voters cited specific economic and social needs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity rules, said universal service is his top priority. He will vote for the Democrats party primarily on economic grounds, citing the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that closes resource gaps and tackles crime. He said he is urging friends to vote and added, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."
