ISIS plots against Israel outnumber pre-2023 total
A new study finds Israeli security agencies disrupted 46 Islamic State attacks in three years, a higher count than the 50 recorded in the prior nine and a half years.
By Ethan Cook ·
The Islamic State has intensified its campaign against Israel since the October 7, 2023, Hamas incursion. According to a report released on Thursday by Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the group attempted more attacks in the three years following the war than it did in the previous nine and a half years combined.
Zelin compiled a database of publicly reported arrests by Israeli forces linked to the Islamic State, tracing activity back to 2014. The data shows that the Israel Defense Forces, the Shin Bet, and other security agencies executed 50 arrest operations related to the group before October 2023. Since the war began, those agencies have carried out an additional 46 such operations, indicating a sharp rise in plot frequency despite the short timeline.
The nature of the threats has shifted from isolated incidents to coordinated cells. Prior to the war, foreign fighters typically traveled to Syria or focused on digital propaganda, resulting in only 18 actual or attempted attacks on foreign soil. In the post-2023 period, the group attempted 28 attacks, though nearly all were thwarted. Zelin noted that recent plots involve direct connections to Islamic State leadership rather than lone-wolf actors. In late December 2023, for example, investigators arrested two men in east Jerusalem’s Ras al-Amud neighborhood who possessed explosives chemicals, bomb-making notes, and a group flag. The suspects allegedly planned to detonate a gas-filled truck near the Knesset.
Other recent cases illustrate the evolving complexity of the threats. A four-man cell near Hebron manufactured roughly 100 explosive devices intended for use against Israeli soldiers. In Tayibe, near Kfar Saba, five men calculated the explosive material needed to collapse the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv. In April 2024, Ahmed Dawabsha, an Islamic State-inspired Palestinian, killed 14-year-old Benjamin Achimeir in the West Bank. Zelin described this shift as part of a broader strategy to encourage Palestinians to view Hamas as a rival. In January 2024, IS spokesman Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari urged followers to fight against Jews and Christians in Western streets.
The group also targets regional states that host US bases, which Zelin identifies as Israel's primary protectors. A September 2025 article in the group’s weekly newsletter claimed that crossing into Israel was difficult because Arab states guarded the borders. While most plots have failed, the organization has succeeded in the past. In 2022, two Arab Israeli terrorists who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State killed two Border Police officers, Yazan Fallah and Shirel Aboukaret, and injured 12 others.
Radicalization often occurs online, with many suspects being teenagers. However, in more than a third of recent cases, suspects were in direct contact with operatives abroad. In 2025, three residents of Arara in northern Israel contacted an Islamic State operative in Syria via TikTok. The operative sent manuals and videos on bomb construction. Separately, a cell in east Jerusalem’s Sur Baher neighborhood planned to travel to Syria for training while maintaining contact with operatives in the West Bank.
Israel has responded by expanding its operations beyond its borders. Security forces have conducted nighttime raids to arrest suspects and carried out strikes in Syria to dismantle the networks planning these attacks.
