Storm System Targets Texas and Kansas Ahead of Vote
Meteorologists warn of 75 mph winds and flash flood risks on Election Day, though experts say the impact on turnout will likely be small.
By Ethan Cook ·
75 mph. That is the threshold for straight-line winds expected in North Texas and parts of Oklahoma on Monday, according to the National Weather Service. The speed raises concerns about damage to power lines and other infrastructure as a major storm system moves through the central United States.
Evan Bentley, the warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, stated that moisture is moving up from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri. "We have plenty of energy available to support severe weather, including damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes," he said. The system brings the risk of hail, heavy rainfall, and hurricane-strength winds.
The weather pattern began developing as the system approached the region. Bentley noted that winds of 70 to 80 miles per hour could impact power grids. "There’s always concern, when we have the potential for winds of 70 to 80 miles per hour, of having impacts on infrastructure, such as power lines," he said. He added that while disruptive, such weather is not uncommon in the region.
Campaigns in the Midwest and Texas are monitoring the situation closely. Both states have hotly contested Senate races. The storm system is scheduled to move east on Tuesday. Jennifer Tate, a meteorologist with the NWS Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, said heavy rainfall is possible in Mississippi, Missouri, and western Tennessee.
On Election Day, scattered flash floods are possible in the lower Mississippi River valley and areas including Memphis, Tate said. Much of the rest of the central U.S., from East Texas to the Midwest, can expect wet and dreary conditions. "There still could be some locally heavy amounts in Iowa," Tate said of rainfall. "Hopefully not anything that would impact travel too much."
The West Coast faces a different forecast. Pockets of rainfall are expected in Northern California, while the East Coast remains largely clear. Some rain is expected in Florida and Maine.
Researchers have studied how weather affects voter turnout. Brad Gomez, an associate professor of political science at Florida State University, analyzed presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. "What we found was that for every inch of rain that a county received above its average amount of rainfall, voter turnout went down about eight-tenths of 1 percentage point," Gomez said.
Gomez noted that institutional changes have altered voting habits. Many states adopted early voting, and Washington and Oregon adopted mail-in voting. The U.S. Election Assistance Commission estimates that only about 37% of Americans vote on Election Day today. This means weather disruptions affect a smaller slice of voters than in the past.
State-level voting methods vary significantly. In the 2024 election, only about 20% of Texans cast ballots in person on Election Day. In contrast, about 60% did so in Minnesota and about 45% in Kansas. Weather disruptions could therefore be more meaningful in Kansas than in Texas.
Thomas Fujiwara, an associate professor of economics at Princeton University, said the effect of rainfall on turnout has decreased over time. "It was stronger in the ’50s and ’60s, and it’s weaker now," Fujiwara said. "We shouldn’t think of rain being a major driver." Both Fujiwara and Gomez said it is hard to predict which party gains from rain given recent voting changes.
