Midterm polls show GOP on defense
With the election days away, new data suggests Republicans are struggling to hold onto key seats in both chambers of Congress.
By Andrew Bennett ·
The political map is shifting against the party in power.
President Donald Trump recently campaigned in Mississippi to support Senate candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith. The state gave Trump nearly 61% of the vote in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator since 1979. Despite those historical margins, the race has become competitive. Trump told reporters, “I’m here because Cindy’s doing great, but I just got to make sure. I can’t take a chance.”
This defensive posture follows two years of economic changes driven by the current administration. The White House implemented a tariff scheme that the New York Federal Reserve confirmed drove up inflation. The central bank noted that goods prices would have fallen without these measures. Additionally, a conflict with Iran, which began after a joint American-Israeli strike killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, caused gas prices to spike to a record high for this time of year. These factors have increased the cost of living for American consumers.
Polling data from RealClearPolitics indicates that the Republican majority in both the House and Senate is in jeopardy. Republicans are expected to lose control of the House. The Georgia Senate seat, which was once a possible flip for Democrats, now appears out of reach for them. Republican-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas are also showing signs of vulnerability.
Public opinion reflects these concerns. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump’s approval rating at around 40%. Approximately 60% of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. These numbers suggest that the affordability crisis and the ongoing conflict are key issues for voters. The administration's approach to trade and foreign policy has created a disconnect with its base, leading to splits among prominent conservative figures. Media personalities Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, along with former Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, have recently broken from Trump. Their departures highlight internal friction within the party as the war drags on.
The Republican strategy relies heavily on criticizing Democrats, particularly their association with Marxism. However, the administration has taken equity stakes in at least 40 American companies. This move complicates the narrative for Republicans who argue against government involvement in the economy. Ohio Republican Senator John Husted introduced legislation to limit these government equity stakes to a period of eight years or less. This bill aims to provide a check on executive power but comes as the party faces its own challenges in retaining power.
Campaign activities are intensifying in key battlegrounds. Trump has scheduled stops in Texas, Montana, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas. These visits aim to shore up support in states where Republican incumbents face tough races. The administration is trying to counter the narrative of economic decline by focusing on the weakness of the opposition. However, with days left until Election Day, the focus has shifted from expanding territory to protecting existing strongholds. The outcome will determine whether the party can maintain its legislative majority or face a significant realignment of power in Washington.
