Succession planning: Defectors see Kim Ju Ae as North Korea's next leader
South Korean intelligence and interviewed defectors assess that the North Korean leader is grooming his young daughter to follow the family's hereditary rule.
By Rosa Wojcik ·
Kim Jong Un has spent the last four years positioning his daughter for a leadership role, a move that defectors and intelligence analysts believe signals a fourth-generation dynastic transfer of power in North Korea. The country, ruled by the Kim family since 1948, has historically maintained strict secrecy around succession, but recent public appearances suggest the current leader is altering that protocol to include his young child.
South Korea’s spy agency assesses that Kim Ju Ae, reported to be about 13 years old, is the likely heir. This view is shared by eight of the 11 defectors interviewed by The Associated Press. Tae Yongho, a former minister at North Korea’s embassy in London who defected in 2016, noted that senior officials treat the girl with protocols reserved for a successor. He stated that they are repeating the same treatment provided to Kim Jong Un when he accompanied his father.
Kang Mi-Jin, who runs a company analyzing the North Korean economy, said contacts inside the country told her via smuggled phones that the girl is in line for power. Jung Gwang-il, a defector who smuggles information into the North, reported that residents in Chinese border towns hold the same belief. Kim Yumi, a defector who fled by boat three years ago, said she first learned of the daughter’s existence when Kim Jong Un introduced her at a missile launch site in November 2022.
Skepticism persists due to the country’s patriarchal culture. Women remain underrepresented in senior government posts, with only one of 17 department directors for the ruling Workers’ Party being a woman, according to South Korea’s Unification Ministry. Kim Jeong-Ah, a former North Korean army officer, argued that revering a young girl as the supreme leader would seem nonsensical to many citizens. However, Lee Si-young, who heads Free North Korea Radio, countered that the Kim family is viewed with god-like status, rendering gender less relevant to their authority.
The upcoming succession will present a complex challenge for the next leader, who will govern a nuclear-armed nation with 26 million people living under strict state surveillance. South Korean officials believe Kim Jong Un has a younger sibling whose gender has not been confirmed. Despite private doubts, experts agree that public resistance to a hereditary succession will be minimal. Ahn Chan-il, a scholar at the World Institute for North Korean Studies, stated that North Koreans will passively accept the transition as a required norm.
Kim Jong Un, 42, is currently in poor health, with recent assessments citing extreme obesity and a high risk of cardiovascular disease. His designation of a child as successor is expected to face little internal opposition. The ruling elite and general citizens accept the hereditary system as a matter of course, similar to how citizens accept presidential elections in other systems. Defectors describe the surveillance apparatus as a tool that enforces loyalty and prevents public expression of discontent.
